Outlook for Thursday, October 1

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that
lack of a risk does not mean zero risk.
Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z – 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

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